🔗 Share this article

Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.

Current Realities

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.