Starmer's Allies Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.
Significant Obstacles in the Selection Process
Several members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
