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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."