Beyond the Ceremony of Vladimir Putin's Delhi Visit: The Indo-Russian Relationship Which Has Weakened.

The diplomatic language and visuals from the Russian leader Vladimir Putin's latest visit to India projected a robust bilateral partnership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomed Putin at the airport with a hug, and the leaders took a car journey, echoing a familiar diplomatic gesture. In his comments, Modi called Putin as "my friend" and labeled the Indo-Russian bond as a "guiding star", founded on "shared respect and deep trust" that had "stood the test of time". This marked Putin's 10th trip to India over his 25-year rule and his 20th meeting with Modi since the latter assumed office in 2014.

A Gap Between Pageantry and Substance

Yet, a significant disconnect exists between the ceremony and the substance of this partnership. While Putin pledged "uninterrupted fuel supplies" to India, Indian refiners are in fact purchasing a reduced amount of Russian oil due to international tariffs and sanctions. The two nations concluded a series of memorandums of understanding in areas like migration, health, food security, naval cooperation, and academic exchanges. But, expected announcements on significant military deals did not happen. India has abstained from any substantial defence agreements with Russia following the 2022's invasion of Ukraine, a trend driven by holdups in shipments of platforms and components as Moscow prioritizes its own wartime requirements.

A Relationship Losing Geopolitical Weight

These developments suggests that the Indo-Russian relationship no longer holds the identical strategic clout it previously possessed. In the era of superpower rivalry, India enjoyed preferential trade terms and market access to the USSR and its allies. This unique relationship reached its pinnacle in 1971 with a Treaty of Peace, Friendship and Cooperation, concluded ahead of a war with Pakistan during which Islamabad was supported by the US and China. While both countries have attempted to preserve a appearance of this close bond through a "special and privileged" alliance declared in 2010, the reality is that their interaction lacks the same importance as New Delhi has significantly deepened relations with the Western world.

Diversification and Inherent Contradictions

New Delhi is unlikely to sever its important relationship with Moscow. But, as external pressure mounts on India to curtail its purchases of Russian oil, both nations are attempting to broaden the partnership into other sectors. On Putin's trip, they unveiled an joint economic programme extending until 2030, designed to make their ties "broader, balanced and sustainable". This includes improving market access for Indian goods to address a trade imbalance heavily skewed in Russia's favor. Collaboration between the two spans multiple key strategic sectors – from space and atomic energy to defence and agriculture.

Sentimental Affinity and Seen Reliability

At an ideological plane, a high degree of affinity with Russia persists, especially among older generations of policymakers in New Delhi who remember Moscow's crucial role during the Cold War. This has resulted in a certain level of understanding for the Russian viewpoint on the Ukraine war. During ongoing tensions between India and the US, in which American officials have made sharp remarks about the Indian economy, many in India see Russia as a increasingly reliable partner.

This key difficulty, of course, is the ongoing war in Ukraine.

The comprehensive declaration issued during Putin's visit made no mention to Ukraine, despite it ironically described the partnership as an "pillar of global peace and stability". Despite Modi's much-touted statement that "now is not the era of war", New Delhi's overt steps regarding the conflict have been minimal.

Navigating the Circle: India's Global Tightrope

This dynamic does not belie the inherent complexities in India's foreign policy. The country is poised to finalize a trade deal with the European Union, after a similar agreement with the UK earlier year. Separately, India, Australia, and Canada declared a trilateral technology partnership. There are far more Indian students in the US than in Russia, even as efforts are being made to strengthen cultural exchanges between India and Russia.

How can India square this circle? New Delhi will be hoping that ongoing peace negotiations will bear fruit, resulting in a end of hostilities and the elimination of a key irritant in its relations with the West. However, even if a peace deal is reached, if it falls short of a "just peace" that upholds Ukraine's independence and borders, scrutiny of the India-Russia alliance will undoubtedly continue in European and American capitals.