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Each time the wind blows from the east from Belarus, Lithuania braces for disruptions.

That is when giant white balloons are launched across the border, with boxes of illicit tobacco swinging beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has forced Lithuania's Vilnius Airport into closure 15 times, delaying thousands of travellers.

On a single instance, the national skies was closed completely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the authorities are adamant they are dealing with something far more hostile than simple smugglers.

They state the balloons have been "weaponised" in an act of covert aggression by Belarus, Russia's closest ally.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian administration has instituted an emergency situation.

While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers suddenly surged this October.

"Of course it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen more than once how Belarus uses organised crime to have an effect on bordering nations," a senior official stated.

The official suggested the balloons are sent from locations that help them best "target" Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If the goal was to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the woods or marshes, not directly at our airport!" the minister pointed out.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's border region.

"This is viewed as a pressure tool: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, nightly, border units head out in the frontier area.

The balloons are most frequent under cover of darkness.

Patrols establish mobile checkpoints on isolated lanes, checking drivers' documents and searching vehicles in search of anyone connected to the smuggling networks.

The balloons fly too high up to make intercepting them with firearms a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any firm that can figure out how to intercept them.

In the meantime, teams use military radar to track the balloons and attempt to apprehend smugglers at the landing sites.

Soon, new criminal charges for aviation disruption should also act as a deterrent.

Political Objectives

The border itself is now marked by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.

This extra security is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now considers its neighbour as adversarial.

Not far away, the leader of Belarus has dismissed all talk of hybrid warfare as "fabricated".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and getting creative to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania rejects that explanation, partly due to previous incidents.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in significant quantities, creating a deliberate crisis.

"The current pattern involves a sequence of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a security official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it swiftly. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into lifting sanctions.

"They want to attract political attention and force us to change our stance on Belarus," is how one minister interprets the sudden influx of balloons.

The EU has not recognized the Belarusian leader as legitimate following disputed elections in 2020 and a subsequent crackdown.

Sanctions were imposed then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the diplomatic ostracism of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Economic and Social Impact

For now, travellers and airlines are having to adapt.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already relocated its charter flights, and another has reduced its evening service.

Revenue losses for all affected businesses are projected to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the even higher risk is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers check a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon likelihood before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a anxious. I'd just like to get home as planned," one traveller said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really amusing to fly those balloons and then mock us."

Her words hint that another aim of such covert tactics – sowing discontent – is also working, and perhaps harder to defend against.

"They're basically testing the limits of Nato: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even fight simple balloons. We're not even equipped for the basic stuff."